With the Autumn Budget confirmed for Wednesday 28 October 2026, we look at what’s being speculated on, what’s already locked in, and why now is the time to review your position rather than wait for the detail.

This is the first budget under Prime minister Andy Burnham and new Chancellor John Healey and the earliest since 2021. Healey’s conference speech on 28 September gave little away but he was clear that fiscal discipline comes first and that difficult decisions lie ahead. It is estimated that he has lost around half of the headroom he inherited, so tax rises are widely expected.

Here’s where the speculation is concentrated, and what’s already confirmed regardless of what happens on the day.

Capital Gains Tax

This is where the noise is loudest. Healey has pointed out that the UK has the lowest CGT of any G7 nation, which has fuelled speculation. There’s reported internal pressure on the Chancellor to align CGT rates with income tax bands, which could mean a significant increase for higher earners. A further proposal on potentially removing the uplift at death when passing on assets via your estate. Nothing has been formally proposed, but this is the area most likely to influence decisions on business disposals, share sales and succession timing.

Income tax and personal allowances

Continued freezing of thresholds looks likely, with some suggestion the personal allowance itself could come under review for pensioners but not all.

Property taxes

Two changes are already locked in, whatever the Budget brings. The £2m+ “mansion tax” council tax surcharge takes effect from April 2028, and landlords face rises to property income tax from April 2027. There are reports indicating that the surcharge could be reduced to £1.5m bringing further properties within its scope.

Pensions and ISAs

Reform is under discussion, including the already-confirmed changes to cash ISA limits from April 2027. Pensions are also due to fall within the scope of inheritance tax from April 2027.

Business rates and employer costs

Some targeted relief has been trailed for specific sectors such as hospitality, alongside the possibility of wider reform.

A separate consultation worth knowing about

Away from the Budget itself, HMRC’s consultation on abolishing the capital reduction demerger route, alongside changes to statutory demerger conditions, buybacks and the transactions in securities rules, closed on 4 September 2026. Nothing is confirmed, and any changes would come via a future Finance Bill, but if a demerger, buyback or capital reduction is part of your plans, it’s worth talking to us sooner rather than later, particularly given clearance and timing considerations.

What we’d like to see from the budget

Stability first! Businesses cannot plan investment, hiring or succession around ever changing rules. A clear multi-year road map for tax rates and reliefs with proper consultation and lead times would be worth more than any single headline.

Simpler capital allowances and an indexed rise of corporation tax thresholds would give companies the confidence to commit to equipment whilst not being quietly pushed into higher effective corporation tax rates.

Rewarding risk and enterprise via ringfencing genuine trading businesses against any tightening of CGT or business asset disposal relief (BADR) and possibly expanding the threshold for BADR from the lifetime limit of £1m. Higher limits for SEIS and EIS would also help businesses to attract talent and early stage funding.

Easing the cost of employing people by raising the employer NIC threshold or the employment allowance would be the most direct help for hiring.  

Signal versus noise

Apart from those already announced, none of the above is confirmed. Budget-season speculation tends to generate more noise than useful signal, and the lead up to last years ‘leaks’ show how unreliable it can be. Our steer to clients is consistent: don’t make significant decisions based on rumour alone but do use the run-up to review your position so you’re ready to act once the detail lands.

For owner-managed businesses, this is often about timing, of disposals, dividends, remuneration planning, gifting or restructuring. Getting ahead of a rate change, or avoiding an unnecessary knee-jerk reaction to one, can make a material difference either way.

Talk to your local team

If it would be useful, we’re happy to have an informal conversation ahead of the Budget to talk through anything relevant to your circumstances, or to act as a sounding board once the announcements are out on 28 October. Get in touch with your local bk plus team to arrange a chat.